It is getting a little heat up in both groups of the Super 12s as the ICC T20 World Cup 2021 group stage is almost coming to an end. England and Pakistan are almost qualified for the Semi-Finals of the tournament. But what about other teams? Here are the scenarios for the Semi-Final of the 2021 T20 World Cup. 

A short note here is that Pakistan has been officially qualified for the Semi-Finals. Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are the two teams that were officially eliminated from the tournament. Hence, their scenarios are not stated here. 

Scenarios for Semi-Final: Group 1 

England

4 matches | 4 wins | 0 losses | 8 points | +3.183 NRR
[Remaining match: vs South Africa]

Team England have had a great tournament so far with some stellar performances. After a breathtaking performance by England last night against Sri Lanka, we can easily say that they are through to the semi-finals but not safely enough even after topping the table. They can still be tied on eight points along with South Africa and Australia, where their run-rate would be enough to take them through to the Knockout Stages.

Scenario 1 – Win their last match against SA	Scenario 2 – If they lose to SA, then it will be decided on NRR
ENG- 10 points AUS – 8 points SA – 6 points SL – 4 points WI – 2 points BAN – 0 points	ENG- 8 points SA – 8 points AUS – 8 points SL – 4 points WI – 2 points BAN – 0 points

South Africa

4 matches | 3 wins | 1 loss | 6 points | +0.742 NRR
[Remaining matches: vs England]

South Africa have won three and lost one game. Their last game is against England and they will be hoping to win big. If they lose and Australia wins their last two games, then it will be a matter of run rates for both teams. However, if both Australia and South Africa lose their last games, South Africa will go through. 

Scenario 1 – Win their last match against ENG	Scenario 2 – If they lose to ENG, But AUS also lose one of their two games, it will come down to NRR
SA – 8 points ENG – 8 points AUS – 8 points SL – 4 points WI – 2 points BAN – 0 points	ENG – 10 points SA – 6 points AUS – 6 points WI – 6 points SL – 4 points BAN – 0 points

Australia

3 matches | 2 wins | 1 loss | 4 points | -0.627 NRR
[Remaining matches: vs Bangladesh, vs West Indies]

Australia’s run rate took a huge blow after their defeat against England, but still, they are placed at the second spot. They can easily cruise through to the knockout stages, but they would want to win both of their remaining games, which they should not take lightly whatsoever as South Africa too can cruise to the eight points.

If they do lose one game, then they better hope that England beat South Africa by a high margin. This will tie both Australia and South Africa to 6 points. 

Scenario 1 – Win their remaining games and hope ENG beats SA	Scenario 2 –  Win their remaining games but SA beats ENG	Scenario 3 –  If they lose any one of their two games, then they must hope ENG beats SA
ENG – 10 points AUS – 8 points SA – 6 points WI – 6 points SL – 4 points BAN – 0 points	ENG – 8 points AUS – 8 points SA – 8 points SL – 4 points WI – 2 points BAN – 0 points	ENG – 10 points AUS – 6 points SA – 6 points WI – 6 points SL – 4 points BAN – 0 points

West Indies

3 matches | 1 win | 2 losses | 2 points | -1.598 NRR
[Remaining matches: vs Sri Lanka, vs Australia]

West Indies have the worst NRR among the six teams in Group 1, so they will not want any scenarios where run rates come into play (unless they achieve huge wins in their last two games). Their best-case scenario will be if Australia and South Africa lose their remaining matches. Then, West Indies can qualify if they win their two remaining matches with huge margins. 

Scenario 1 – Win their last two matches with huge margins	Scenario 2 – Win their last two matches with huge margins and hope that AUS lose all of their matches
ENG – 10 points WI – 6 points AUS – 6 points SA – 6 points SL – 4 points BAN – 0 points	ENG – 10 points WI – 6 points SA – 6 points AUS – 4 points SL – 4 points BAN – 0 points

Scenarios for Semi-Final: Group 2

Afghanistan

3 matches | 2 wins | 1 loss | 4 points | +3.097 NRR
[Remaining matches: vs India, vs New Zealand]

Afghanistan has a far better chance to get through to the next round. All they need to do is to defeat India and New Zealand to get to 8 points. That will be enough to get them through. Even if they fail to beat India but manage to defeat New Zealand, they will get to six points. With their highly positive NRR, Afghanistan can easily go through. 

However, if they do defeat India but fails to defeat New Zealand, New Zealand will go through as they (Assuming they beat Namibia and Scotland) will end with 8 points. 

Scenario 1 – Beating both India and New Zealand	Scenario 2 – Loosing to India but winning over New Zealand
PAK – 10 points AFG – 8 points NZ – 6 points IND – 4 points NAM – 2 points SCO – 0 points	PAK – 10 points AFG – 6 points IND – 6 points NZ – 6 points NAM – 2 points SCO – 0 points

* Assuming if Namibia and Scotland do not win their final matches

New Zealand

2 matches | 1 win | 1 loss | 2 points | +0.765 NRR
[Remaining matches: vs Scotland, vs Namibia, vs Afghanistan]

New Zealand’s best way to qualify is to win all of their remaining matches and qualify with Pakistan. They will end up with 8 points. However, if they lose to Afghanistan, they can still qualify but on the NRR. For that case, they must have a better NRR than Afghanistan’s +3. 

Scenario 1 – Winning all of their remaining matches	Scenario 2 – IF they lose to AFG, but win over NAM and SCOT with high margins
PAK – 10 points NZ – 8 points IND – 6 points AFG – 4 points NAM – 2 points SCOT – 0 points	PAK – 10 points NZ – 6 points AFG – 6 points IND – 6 points NAM – 2 points SCO – 0 points

* Assuming if Namibia and Scotland do not win their final matches

Namibia

3 matches | 1 win | 2 losses | 2 points | -1.287 NRR
[Remaining matches: vs New Zealand, vs India]

Yes, even Namibia can still qualify for the Semi-Finals. But their loss to Pakistan has made it a little tougher. They must defeat New Zealand and India with high margins and hope that both India and New Zealand beat Afghanistan.

Best-case Scenario   Win their remaining games over IND and NZ with high margins

PAK – 10 points NAM – 6 pointsNZ – 6 points ND – 4 points AFG – 4 points SCO – 0 points

India

2 matches | 0 wins | 2 losses | 0 points | -1.609 NRR
[Remaining matches: vs Afghanistan, vs Scotland, vs Namibia]

India came into the tournament with high expectations. However, back-to-back losses to Pakistan and New Zealand has dented their chances. Another loss will officially end India’s T20 World Cup campaign. 

India must win all of their last three remaining games. They are expected to win over Namibia and Scotland easily but their next game, against Afghanistan, will be a challenge for sure. India must try to beat all of them with big margins in order to leapfrog over Afghanistan’s NRR. 

Also, they would like a little help from Afghanistan to beat New Zealand and keep them to six points only. If all go as India would hope, the final scene may look like this;

Best-case Scenario  Winning all of their last matches against Afghanistan, Namibia and Scotland and hope Afghanistan win over New Zealand

PAK – 10 points IND – 6 points AFG – 6 points NZ – 6 points NAM – 2 points SCO – 0 points

* Assuming if Namibia and Scotland do not win their final matches

Scotland

2 matches | 0 wins | 2  losses | 0 points | -3.562 NRR
[Remaining matches: vs New Zealand, vs India, vs Pakistan]

Even Scotland has a chance to qualify, but with a very slim margin. The least they can do is win all of their remaining matches with the biggest margins possible. They can tie with 6 points along with the winner of the New Zealand vs Afghanistan match. Any losses will result in their elimination. 

Best-case Scenario  Winning all of their last matches against PAK, NZ and IND while improving their NRR

PAK – 10 points SCO – 6 points NZ – 6 points AFG – 4 points IND – 4 points NAM – 2 points

Also Read:

What Went Wrong For Defending Champions West Indies in T20 World Cup 2021

Written by: Anas Chishty and Abdul Raza